Wednesday 12 / March / 2025
Stories of setbacks and flaws in China’s space activities have gained increasing urgency at the global level. China, which has been loudly proclaiming its status as a "space power," has deliberately chosen to downplay its flaws and setbacks.
A glaring example of China’s commercial space sector's growing pains occurred in the last week of December. The ZK-1A rocket, launched by CAS Space, failed spectacularly. China has been ramping up the frequency of its commercial launches—sometimes as often as once per month—yet the ZK-1A failure was a stark reminder of the inconsistency and unpredictability plaguing China’s commercial space endeavors.
This failure was not an isolated event. In June, a test of Space Pioneer’s Tianlong-3 rocket ended in disaster when the first-stage engine malfunctioned. It tore free from its test bench, exploded in a fiery ball, and sent shockwaves through the surrounding area. The incident, visible to thousands of onlookers, underscored the challenges China faces as it strives to catch up in the global space race.
While these technical failures primarily affect China’s commercial space sector, their broader impact could be far more significant. The country is in the midst of launching thousands of satellites, aimed at improving internet communication, Earth observation, and scientific research. As China’s commercial and state-backed space ventures proliferate, any on-orbit failures—whether malfunctions or collisions—could pose substantial risks to the global space community. Some experts have warned that China’s emerging space industry could soon face the same overcapacity problems that have plagued other sectors of its economy, from steel to electric vehicles.
Overcapacity is already apparent within China’s space industry. Remote sensing company CGSTL, which launched more than 140 satellites, faced a revenue shortfall due to overbuilding. Despite the ambitious scale of its satellite launches, CGSTL was unable to recoup its costs as quickly as anticipated. This example serves as a cautionary tale of the risks inherent in overbuilding within a highly competitive market. As China’s space sector expands, it will likely continue to grapple with challenges related to overcapacity, funding, and maintaining business sustainability.
The space debris crisis is an even more pressing issue. China has drawn significant international criticism for its lack of effective space debris management. This issue is compounded by the frequent explosions of rocket stages in space, which create clouds of debris that remain in orbit for years. In August 2024, a Chinese rocket carrying 18 satellites exploded shortly after deployment, releasing more than 700 debris pieces into orbit. Experts fear that the number of debris pieces could exceed 900. The resulting debris cloud, now in low Earth orbit, poses a significant risk to both Chinese and international satellites. This event followed a similar occurrence in 2022, when the upper stage of a Long March 6A rocket broke apart, generating hundreds of debris fragments.
Moreover, uncontrolled re-entries of space debris have sparked growing alarm. In 2024, a large piece of space junk from the Shenzhou-15 spacecraft entered Earth’s atmosphere uncontrollably, causing a sonic boom that was tracked by seismometers. Although the debris ultimately burned up upon re-entry, such uncontrolled events pose a serious threat to people and property on the ground.
The risk extends beyond the immediate realm of space. In 2020, debris from another Chinese rocket crashed onto the Ivory Coast, damaging buildings and heightening concerns about the potential dangers posed by falling rocket stages. This issue is particularly concerning for China’s inland launch sites, which often fly over populated villages during their ascent. In June 2024, a Long March 2C rocket launched from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center crashed near the village of Xianqiao, sparking fears about the toxic nature of rocket propellants and the health risks posed to local communities. Such incidents exacerbate concerns about the safety of China’s launch sites, especially given their proximity to residential areas.
The global community has repeatedly criticized China for its failure to adhere to responsible space debris management standards. In 2021, NASA condemned China for the uncontrolled re-entry of the Long March 5B Y2 rocket, which crashed into the Indian Ocean near the Maldives. Chinese aerospace experts have denied the accusations, asserting that China had not lost track of its flight path or real-time location. However, countries like Japan and the Philippines too have expressed serious concerns about the increasing risks posed by China’s space activities, particularly its uncontrolled debris and ambitious expansion plans.
With China’s growing ambitions in space, these types of incidents are likely to multiply in the future. As more satellites and rockets are launched into space, the risk of collisions and debris accumulation will only increase, posing a significant threat to the safety of space operations worldwide.
China’s space program is still in its nascent stages, and the growing number of launch failures, overcapacity in the commercial space sector, and the worsening space debris crisis underscore the difficulty of balancing rapid expansion with safety, reliability, and sustainability. The repercussions of these challenges extend beyond China, as space debris in low Earth orbit is an issue that transcends national borders. If left unaddressed, these problems could heighten the risks for all spacefaring nations.
Therefore, it has become essential for the global community to seek from China a commitment to safety, international cooperation, and better space debris management to prevent future collisions and uncontrolled re-entries. The global space community must push for stricter regulations and more collaborative efforts to tackle these mounting risks and ensure the long-term sustainability of space activities.
